In response to the increasing policy need to assess the distributional effects of transition to low-carbon economy, Cambridge Econometrics has developed a novel method to model local impacts, by disaggregating E3ME simulation results into regional (NUTS-2) estimates. This article…
Cambridge Econometrics is involved in analysing the potential of Green Recovery in various projects including work for the We Mean Business coalition and the UN Partnership for Action on Green Economy. As a part of this endeavour, we also carried out an analysis of potential of G…
Global GDP: we currently project the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce global GDP by 5% below a no-virus baseline in 2020 and 2021
Private indebtedness: the impacts on private indebtedness suggest that the subsequent recovery will be slow: while pre-crisis growth rates are restored, the lost level of GDP is not made up (a similar profile to what followed the Great Recession)
Government action: to mitigate those impacts further, governments will need to scale up the socialisation of private debt (through direct subsidy) and not merely ensure that liquidity is provided